DOES NOT WANT OUT OF HIS POST Minister Bozidar Kalmeta (in the middle) has denied for Nacional that he is willing to step down if Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor asks him to do so Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor would like to see Bozidar Kalmeta go, but is aware that she is not in a position to rid herself of this influential Minister of the Sea, Transport and Infrastructure unless he himself decides to go. After the departure, in the wake of allegations of corruption, of Damir Polancec, and with an ongoing investigation into former defence minister Berislav Roncevic, it appears that Jadranka Kosor is no longer able to continue resolving the issue of ministries embroiled in scandal, without provoking a mutiny within the HDZ.

That means that Bozidar Kalmeta, for a while yet at least, in spite of strong media pressure and an SDP interpellation demanding his ouster, remains a member of the cabinet and will not resign over the Croatian Motorways Ltd. scandal. In a statement for Nacional by Kalmeta on Monday before noon he explicitly denied an article that appeared in the Vecernji list daily according to which his close aids stated that he was willing to step down if the Prime Minister so requested. The Minister was very resolute in denying this news.

"Tendering a resignation is out of the question because I am not culpable. I shall fight this and prove in Parliament during the deliberation on the SDP interpellation that I have nothing whatsoever to do with the accusations levelled at me. To date I have beaten the SDP candidates at every election, and that is why they are attempting in this fashion to get into power, but they shall fail in the attempt. I reported to the competent authorities long ago everything that I knew of criminal activity in the portfolio I cover, and that is the entire truth," Kalmeta said.

Bozidar Kalmeta also claims that Jadranka Kosor is informed of the entire situation surrounding Croatian Motorways Ltd., and that she is not pressuring him to tender his resignation. He also feels that he has the support of President Stipe Mesic, and coalition partners Milorad Pupovac, Josip Friscic and Darinko Kosor.

The political fate of Bozidar Kalmeta, besides, also depends on how what positions the MPs of the HSS, HSLS and SDSS will assume. Government will this week reject the opposition demand to dismiss Kalmeta, and that means that a debate in Parliament will be held on this issue sometime before Christmas.

At issue is an SDP interpellation demanding that Parliament seek the dismissal of Bozidar Kalmeta over a series of scandals in companies operating under the ministry he leads. As SDP members Zeljko Jovanovic and Josip Leko stated at a press conference last week, they are out to get Kalmeta fired over the scandals in the Croatian Railways company, Croatian Motorways Ltd., the Croatian Roads company, the Rijeka-Zagreb Motorway company, the Jadrolinija liner shipping company and in other firms. A high-ranking SDP Member of Parliament has confirmed for Nacional that, if the demand for Kalmeta's ouster fails, the SDP would in early 2010 seek a vote of no confidence in the Government led by Jadranka Kosor.

The opposition feels that there are growing signs of disintegration within the ruling coalition, and that Kalmeta's staying on board, which will initially appear to be a victory for the HDZ, will in fact initiate a crisis in the current administration. There are serious indications that the HSLS, SDSS and some minority MPs could leave the ruling coalition, especially after Darinko Kosor said that Kalmeta should not be held criminally responsible, but should certainly be held politically responsible.Kalmeta with new Economy Minister Duro Popijac

Jadranka Kosor now finds herself in a very difficult situation, and is aware that the latest crisis can only be averted by the departure of Bozidar Kalmeta. The Prime Minister's reasoning boils down to the logic that nobody is yet talking of launching an investigation against the Minister, and Kalmeta would resume his seat in Parliament and remain a vice president of the HDZ. In a way he could depict his departure as a moral act and his assumption of political responsibility in the sector he has led since 2004. But Jadranka Kosor's problem is that Kalmeta is not Polancec, who, objectively, did not wield any great influence within the HDZ. That is why the Prime Minister was quite calm in abandoning him, even though he was initially defended by Luka Bebic and Andrija Hebrang.

In the end they concluded that the minister's resignation would boost this administration's popularity, which was shown true. But unlike Polancec, Kalmeta has a strong base within the HDZ, and has been in the ruling party's leadership for an entire decade. Jadranka Kosor has come to the conclusion that directly demanding Kalmeta's resignation could prove counter effective, and be rejected by the members of the HDZ presidency. Simply put, a large portion of the HDZ opposes the anti-corruption campaigns that regularly target officials of the ruling party, and Jadranka Kosor is forced to respect this unhappiness or risk a conflict with Kalmeta's fraction.

This is why Kalmeta was defended late last week by the most prominent HDZ officials. First Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor stated in Parliament that she supported the minister and added that she believed he was not aware of what was going on in the Croatian Motorways company. Luka Bebic was of a similar opinion, also defending Kalmeta and the proposition that this minister could not have been aware of everything going on in the portfolio he covers. But Bebic also let it be known that the possible sacking of Kalmeta would be a step too far in the Prime Minister's showdown with corruption. After the departures of Polancec and Roncevic and the investigations being led against ten members of the Podravka and Croatian Motorways boards, and they are all close to the HDZ, drawing out Bozidar Kalmeta is seen as the continued collapse of the ruling party.

A similar opinion was voiced by presidential hopeful Andrija Hebrang, who warned during the weekend that the recent anti-corruption scandals where having a negative affect on his campaign. Hebrang's chances of becoming president are minimal, and the latest public opinion polls put even Dragan Primorac ahead of him, who was recently removed from HDZ membership. And while at the HDZ they have not believed Hebrang stands a chance for months now, they are by no means indifferent to the danger that their candidate might fare very poorly and only win some ten percent of the vote. Hebrang is still Jadranka Kosor's ally, but it is evident from this latest statement that he is unhappy about the opening of yet another anti-corruption scandal in which the HDZ is embroiled in.

IN FRONT OF MALA KAPELA at the start of construction on the longest tunnel in Croatia Bozidar Kalmeta is one of the HDZ's most successful politicians, and definitely established himself as a minister in the Ivo Sanader administration. When Sanader floated the idea that he was considering a bid for the presidency this spring, the former Prime Minister's aides claimed that only Jadranka Kosor or Bozidar Kalmeta could replace him in both the party and in Government. After Sanader's unexpected abdication Jadranka Kosor was picked to succeed him, while the rumour was that Kalmeta was not loyal enough to Sanader. In the meantime the circumstances have changed significantly and now Sanaderites are targeting their charges of disloyalty to the address of Prime Minister Kosor, while Kalmeta's defence is being depicted as a fight for the HDZ. There is no doubt that he is a successful politician in Croatian terms. Dalmatia and Slavonia remained a HDZ stronghold at the parliamentary elections in 2003 and 2007, and "Kalmeta's slate" in the 9th electoral riding secured as many as ten seats in Parliament. Kalmeta won a convincing victory over the SDP's Ranko Ostojic, and in May of this year at the local elections his people again won in the City of Zadar and Zadar County. Kalmeta is also supported by a part of the older membership with who he has been in the HDZ from the early 1990s.

On the other hand, there have been allegations for some time now that the Minister of the Sea, Transport and Infrastructure controls the flow of money, as a result of which he has on several occasions been accused that his ministry finances the HDZ.

Bozidar Kalmeta has been accused of organising the financing of the flight of Ante Gotovina, and there was a major scandal in 2007 when it was established that his driver Danijel Miocic and six accomplices had been arrested, and then convicted of extorting 460 thousand kuna from Mico Valentic, a businessman from Cetingrad. Kalmeta survived this scandal and, contrary to expectations, Sanader again appointed him to his cabinet after the 2007 elections.

Kalmeta proved his loyalty again in the last election campaign, in which he acted as the spokesman of the party's right wing. At a Benkovac rally he said that Franjo Tudjman was the "creator of Croatia and one of the greatest Croatians in history, and today's modern and European HDZ lives and preserves the foundations set by Tudjman." Kalmeta called on those gathered to vote for the HDZ and its coalition partners, the HSP, HSS and HSLS, and not for "them", the SDP and HNS, because they were, he said, far from country, god and the people. With the exception of the elections held on 3 January 2000, Kalmeta has never lost at the polls.

The current situation is significantly different and in spite of his statement that he does not intend to step down, it is an open question whether Bozidar Kalmeta will in his ministerial post. The portfolio he covers has seen scandals in which tens of million of euro were embezzled, of which there had been warnings for several years now. As minister he bears political responsibility for this state of affairs, all the more so because he has in the past on several occasions rejected warnings that corruption was rife in motorway construction.

Kalmeta at the opening of the Dugopolje-Sestanovac motorway section in 2007 with Ivo Sanader, Archbishop Marin Barisic and County Prefect Ante Sanader It is to be expected that the press will permanently evoke his role in the Croatian Motorways company scandal or that Kalmeta's long time official driver is now a convicted felon. This development has to hurt the HDZ, just as it has already destroyed Andrija Hebrang's chances in the presidential campaign, and at the same time works in favour of the opposition. Ivo Josipovic stands to gain the most, whose campaign is uninteresting, but is based on combating corruption.

Bozidar Kalmeta is an experienced politician and knows that the scandals in which he is mentioned have hurt the HDZ. For now, however, he refuses to tender his resignation, because he feels that it would come off as a defeat to the SDP, which he does not accept. The only question is how long he will stick it out under pressure from the public, and from Jadranka Kosor.