THE LAST TIME AT SANADER'S RIGHT HAND Jadranka Kosor and Ivo Sanader at the July 7 session of Government that saw the changeover at the post of Prime Minister – the relationship now is not as cheery Ivo Sanader is threatening to get back into the politics and oust Jadranka Kosor from the post of Prime Minister and president of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ). Over the past ten days or so Sanader has met with a number of HDZ officials and announced his readiness to get back into politics, and to do so quite soon.

The announced possible reactivation is motivated by the police investigations in which the suspects are high ranking HDZ officials, including some indications that the former Prime Minister is up next, and has caused no end of worry among Jadranka Kosor's allies, and intensified the conflict between these two clans, Nacional has learned.

The news that, in order to protect himself from possible criminal prosecution, Sanader is ready to push Prime Minister Kosor out of office, has been confirmed for Nacional by a close aid to the former Prime Minister that has shifted to the Kosor camp. The current Prime Minister has also heard wind of this from people close to her former boss. For the moment nobody is discussing a comeback date, but Sanader's message to allies in the party is significant - "Stick it out, I'll be back."

Among HDZ politicians there is word that the former Prime Minister has been keenly following the latest developments in Parliament concerning the agreement with the Slovenians, hoping to see his successor suffer a defeat, which would pave the way for a comeback to his former post. There is also speculation that Sanader took part in the initiative that saw a group of left-wing and right-wing intellectuals demand the agreement with Slovenia be rejected. Contacts with the Catholic church were allegedly carried out in his name by disappointed former diplomats from Rome and Paris. Sanader is being very discrete in his offensive against Jadranka Kosor, and does not attack her even in internal discussions, or during individual meetings with prominent HDZ members.

The chief targets of Sanader's discussions with allies are Ministers Tomislav Karamarko and Ivan Simonovic. Both are, allegedly, to blame for processing scandals whose participants are HDZ members, and which have culminated in the Podravka scandal, which has claimed Damir Polancec as a victim. Sanader is, of course, not worried about Polancec, but is rather fearful that the participants of these scandals could implicate him, and Karamarko and Simonovic are showing no signs of their intention to obstruct the investigations. That is why the Interior Minister and Justice Minister, along with the State Attorney's Office and the press, have been labelled enemies of the HDZ.

Nacional's source claims that Sanader also numbers President Stipe Mesic among these, who he feels is also playing an active role in the attacks on the Croatian Democratic Union, and they are all, allegedly, trying to destroy the HDZ. Sanader has met twice recently with Damir Polancec, who was, up to last Friday, the Deputy Prime Minister, and who has stepped down because of his complicity in the Podravka scandal. In spite of the support of the former Prime Minister, who has publicly stood in his defence at a session of the HDZ presidency, Polancec was forced to quit the Government and is now waiting to see if the State Attorney's Office will indict him.

Besides with Polancec, Sanader also met with HSS president and old ally Josip Friscic. Ivo Sanader is also, Nacional was told by one of his close and long-time associates - making ever more frequent telephone calls to members of the ruling party's presidency, saying he will get back into the political arena. He has not for the moment stated precisely when this might be, but regardless of how utopian his comeback might seem now, it vividly shows that there are powerful motives for the move. Because, when in July he suddenly and without so much as a clear explanation tendered his resignation to all the positions he held and announced his withdrawal from politics, he planned to come back only for the Parliamentary elections in 2011.

In the meantime he planned to spend six months in the USA and Canada, and this scenario would probably have been realised had he not been surprised by the turn of events, above all the willingness of Jadranka Kosor to allow the police and judicial authorities follow through with their investigations into affairs involving influential HDZ members like Berislav Roncevic, Damir Polancec and Branko Vukelic. According to the information available, Sanader is still avoiding opening a direct conflict with Jadranka Kosor, but the way in which he discusses her policies makes it clear that he wants her out of office. The Prime Minister's allies are well aware of this, and are very concerned by Sanader's essays to make a political comeback. They are right to do so based on personnel issues within the HDZ, where some reshuffling and the forging of new alliances has been going on from the summer, and it should by no means be forgotten that the former party boss, with the help of Ivan Jarnjak, personally decided on who would fill ministerial chairs, parliamentary benches, who would be nominated for the posts of county prefect, mayor or to the helms of state-owned firms.

ENEMIES Minister Karamarko and Simonovic, whom he appointed to the cabinet, Sanader has now declared enemies who are out to destroy the HDZ Jadranka Kosor could not have, and lacked the time to, carry out a de-Sanaderisation, and is now faced with the danger that those who oppose her policies might rally once again around the former HDZ leader. Besides, of the 23 members of the HDZ presidency, at least half are openly at Sanader's side or, at the least, continue to refuse to align themselves with Jadranka Kosor.

These are Darko Milinovic, Ivan Jarnjak, Luka Bebic, Bozo Biskupic, Bianca Matkovic, Branko Vukelic, Damir Polancec and Mario Zubovic. Also close to Sanader are Gordan Jandrokovic and Petar Selem, while Ivanka Roksandic and Mislav Banek are "unaligned". Jadranka Kosor has the backing of Andrija Hebrang, Vladimir Seks, Branko Bacic, Ivan Suker, Marina Matulovic-Dropulic and Jasen Mesic, and of late also of Bozidar Kalmeta and Petar Cobankovic. Dragan Primorac is also a member of the HDZ presidency, but entirely inactive, and if he decides to run at the presidential elections, he will officially be chucked out of the HDZ. It should be kept in mind that literally all of the members of the presidency were elected or directly co-opted at the decision of Ivo Sanader, while the verification of these decisions was no more than a formality.

When Ivo Sanader spoke out in support of Polancec at the recent session of the HDZ presidency, aside from the roundabout retort from Jadranka Kosor, no one opposed him. This detail clearly shows the fear most of the officials have of Sanader, and that many among them still support him. The situation in Parliament is somewhat different, where there is a HDZ team without an executive leadership, and who vote only following the directives of the party headquarters and Government. There has been confusion in their ranks and a lack of relevant information on events at the top of the party, and most get their information about the conflict between Jadranka Kosor and Ivo Sanader from the press.

One of the HDZ MPs confirmed these days that they have for some time now not received any information on strategic issues from the party headquarters and are voting almost on inertia, and the situation has been further aggravated by Andrija Hebrang's presidential bid. He leads the HDZ club of deputies in Parliament, but is now almost completely focused on his campaign. As far as Jadranka Kosor is concerned, she communicated only with her closest aides, and shows no desire for direct discussions with Members of Parliament.

In these circumstances it is hard to come up with an entirely precise picture of who they back, and the most realistic estimation is that a third advocate Sanader's return to the political arena, a third has in the meantime aligned itself with Prime Minister Kosor, and the remainder is simply keeping quiet and waiting to see how the situation in the ruling party, and in the country, develops. The growing frequency of reports of internal squabbling in the HDZ, judicial and police investigations into national electric power authority HEP, Podravka and the lorry scandal, along with Hebrang's realistically poor chances at the presidential elections, have noticeably reduced the amount of self confidence of some HDZ MPs, who are willing to admit discretely that there is an objective danger of early elections being called. And while they are not close to Sanader, they voice doubts concerning the ability of Jadranka Kosor to significantly improve the situation with her policies, and there has been particular opposition to the idea that Polancec would be replaced by a non-affiliated expert.
For them it is tantamount to a betrayal of the party and the team that protects the ruling coalition in Parliament.

"We have to protect the HDZ, and cabinet will in the meantime perhaps be joined, for example, by Damir Kustrak, who once worked in the SDP government, and now represents the Croatian Employers' Association. Do you really think that he, or anyone of his political profile will protect the interests of the HDZ, and not of the lobby groups that back him? It is a good thing that Polancec has left, because he did in fact hurt the HDZ, but it would be a big mistake if he was succeeded by someone for whom it is all the same whether we stay in power after the next elections or wind up in the opposition," feels one MP.

Nacional's informer from the top ranks of the ruling party claims that Sanader has these past days also called some HDZ MPs and impressed on them that they should not accept the introduction of independent experts. The fact that a similar proposition is also advocated by an MP that is very reserved towards a Sanader political comeback shows that the current Prime Minister has several varied groups against herself. Sanader is impressing on the parliamentary deputies that the most important thing is to defeat the SDP's nominee Ivo Josipovic at the presidential elections.

A YOUTHFUL OPPOSITION Ivo Sanader and Jadranka Kosor at a 2000 press conference According to him it is almost irrelevant whether Andrija Hebrang, Nadan Vidosevic or Dragan Primorac become president, it just must not be Ivo Josipovic. It appears that Sanader's opinions have quite annoyed Hebrang, who has definitely joined Jadranka Kosor's ranks, and who recently rejected the former Prime Minister's idea that his campaign slogan be "A President and a Gentleman". Ivo Sanader threatens to return, but Jadranka Kosor is evidently gearing up for a confrontation.

In the process she is demonstrating significant organisational ability and enjoys the increasing support of the public and the press, and has won over influential allies within the HDZ, such as Seks, Hebrang, Kalmeta, Cobankovic and Branko Bacic.

And finally, for the vast majority of the public, and the HDZ, Sanader's resignation was seen as a betrayal. He left a party that was entirely dependent on his will quite unexpectedly and without any explanation, engendering the fury of the party membership. That is why it is objectively questionable if there are any perspectives for his comeback, but one thing is sure - Ivo Sanader wants back into power.