AN ISOLATED LUKA BEBIC The Speaker of Parliament did not win the support of a single member of the HDZ presidency, and both Vladimir Seks and Bozidar Kalmeta expressed their support of the Prime Minister after the argumentFar from the public eye, at the last session of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) presidency, the first vehement verbal altercation played out, confirming the profound differences tearing apart the ruling party. Those involved were Jadranka Kosor and Luka Bebic, whose very disconcerting argument warned of the deep rifts in the HDZ leadership. But this was no simple internal squabble. Those well informed in the situation in the HDZ say that this is the beginning of Jadranka Kosor's showdown with the stalwarts of former Prime Minister Ivo Sanader in the party's presidency and its central committee, and who are led by Luka Bebic.

Nacional learned of the dramatic exchange of harsh words a week ago from a member of the HDZ presidency. The authenticity of the story was confirmed recently by another two participants of the meeting, who called the event "dramatic". The conflict was sparked of by Luka Bebic's interruptions and ill-mannered behaviour, and witnesses confirm this scenario. Bebic cut Jadranka Kosor off in mid sentence and tried to comment something. The exasperated Prime Minister reacted vehemently, saying, "Shut up, I did not give you the floor."

This was followed by Bebic's reply, which the participants of the session describe as a quite tactless "And who are you that I should ask permission?" Jadranka Kosor's answer was short and to the point, "I am the Prime Minister and the President of the HDZ. And who are you?" Her response - say those at the meeting - completely threw Luka Bebic out of tact, and he initially did fall silent, and then, some ten minutes later, got up and left the room. It should be reiterated, this was no run of the mill squabble, the kind that takes place in all parties when major decisions are on the table, it is also an indicator of major tension and differences of opinion within the HDZ, which have so far been successfully concealed from the Croatian public. In this context the Bebic - Kosor quarrel has two facets. First, it is confirmation of the personal animosities present between some members of the HDZ presidency, within which there are several active informal factions, mutually highly antagonistic. Second, and more important, is the fact that the quarrel has shown that there is a power struggle within the party being played out in the party leadership, and in the ranks of Government itself. The chief protagonists are Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor, who is quietly endeavouring to take real and not just formal power in the party, and Ivo Sanader who, while voluntarily giving up the reins of government three months ago, has refused to relinquish his political power and influence on key decisions and the personnel policies in the country.

Luka Bebic is Sanader's strongest player in power and the altercation with Jadranka Kosor shows that the Speaker of Parliament believes that the Prime Minister can do him no harm. And he was not only not supported by any of the members of the HDZ presidency on hand, but both Vladimir Seks and Bozidar Kalmeta not longer afterwards expressed their support of Jadranka Kosor. When he saw what was going on, Luka Bebic left the meeting, and it was clear that he had that day suffered a serious defeat at the hands of Jadranka Kosor. In reality, it is Ivo Sanader who has been defeated, until recently the undisputed leader of the HDZ, who less than a hundred days since leaving power is all the more on the margins and forced to watch how a part of his followers are now aligning themselves with Prime Minister Kosor, and the others, little by little, are losing their influence. The most important of the remaining Sanaderites is undoubtedly Luka Bebic, who had over the past few years become the number two man in the HDZ hierarchy. But his influence has been undermined by the Sanader departure, and the scandals in the press that revealed that Bebic found employment for acquaintances and other people from his native region in government companies.

And while he remains the Speaker of Parliament the fact that he did in fact have to fall silent before Jadranka Kosor, and then leave this important meeting, are more than significant. Changes in personnel and a "reshuffle" within the HDZ were on the table at a lunch between Ivo Sanader and Jadranka Kosor at Zagreb's Baltazar restaurant. And while the public was told that Sanader had congratulated the Prime Minister on the announced Slovene unblocking of the negotiations between Croatia and the European Union, the truth is a great deal different. It was in fact a difficult meeting, and the immediate cause was Sanader's dissatisfaction with what Jadranka Kosor is doing. The former HDZ leader is - quite rightly - fearful that there is a kind of de-Sanaderisation in process, and for now the still gentle elimination of his people. That is the essence of the lunchtime discussion at Baltazar. Sanader reproached the Prime Minister during the entire lunch, and indicative of their relationship is the fact that they did not hear from one another again afterwards. Besides, the already cited meeting of the HDZ presidency shows that Jadranka Kosor is starting to win over a growing number of allies within the party. When she took on the posts of Prime Minister and president of the HDZ, the only top-ranking HDZ official to back her was Branko Bacic, also a recent appointee at the post of HDZ general secretary.

DISOWNED BEBIC Minister Suker and HDZ presidency members Hebrang and SeksBacic is climbing up the party hierarchy faster and faster, which is certainly influenced by his closeness to Jadranka Kosor. And he has a friend since childhood with Constitutional Court judge and former justice minister Miroslav Separovic, who is very influential within the HDZ. According to high-ranking HDZ members, Vladimir Seks has demonstrated a growing approbation towards Jadranka Kosor. And while he has had his falls in his political career, Seks is the only member of the current ruling clique that has been in the very top echelons of the HDZ since 1989. In the second half of the 1990s he was the political patron of Jadranka Kosor, and with the departure of Sanader he has once again become a key figure in the ruling hierarchy. His alignment with Jadranka Kosor could secure an alliance that would definitely reduce Sanader's influence within the HDZ. Bozidar Kalmeta does not enjoy this kind of power at the national level, but is without a doubt the leading HDZ official in Zadar and the Dalmatia region. He leads a ministry dependent on budget resources and that makes it logical for him to throw in his lot with the team surrounding Jadranka Kosor. The support of Andrija Hebrang, the HDZ's presidential candidate, is important to the Prime Minister. Hebrang has backed Jadranka Kosor within the party on several occasions. His aids say that the recent story that Hebrang opposed the sacking of national electric power authority HEP CEO Ivan Mravak was entirely untrue.

As they explain. Hebrang only sought that the accusations levelled against Mravak be investigated first, but once the charges had been filed that he no longer wished to be involved in the scandal. Probably also because in the lorry scandal he defended Berislav Roncevic, and compromised himself significantly in the process. Jadranka Kosor has also been explicitly supported by a large number of HDZ officials in the party's county and local organisations. It is hard to imagine a different turn of events. Most of these people were unquestionably loyal to Sanader, but his sudden departure has forced them to gather around a new focus of power, and it is being created by Jadranka Kosor. Sanader is increasingly a thing of the past, and the weakening influence of the former Prime Minister is best seen in the example of the marginalisation of Luka Bebic as his last ally in the top leadership. This is no longer even the Healthcare Minister Darko Milinovic, who has established himself as the leader of the HDZ's right wing, but is described in the ruling party as a solo player, and not the ally of Ivo Sanader.

The quarrel between Jadranka Kosor and Luka Bebic is the worst, but not the only conflict brewing within the HDZ. It was only with a little less vehemence that Ministers Petar Cobankovic and Bozidar Kalmeta knocked heads over the issue of personnel changes in state-owned companies and the national administration. Cobankovic accused Kalmeta of carrying out a purge of HDZ members from the Slavonia region, and is favouring his people from the Dalmatia region. Again under fire is Luka Bebic, and he is particularly under attack, as being opposed to people coming from Slavonia, from Homeland War disabled vets association HVIDR head Josip Dakic and from former interior minister Ivica Kirin. In these circumstances Jadranka Kosor recently put a strategic plan to her closest aids that, speaking conditionally, consists of three phases. It should be pointed out here that this is a strategy geared towards a relatively normal development of political events over the coming half a year. The primary task of the ruling coalition is to draft a 2010 national budget. Most leading economists have expressed their doubts about the end of the recession and the recovery of the Croatian economy over the coming year. This is the line of thinking that Jadranka Kosor has adopted, but the initial indictors of the upcoming budget show that Government continues to refuse to implement more comprehensive savings measures. At issue is the fear of widespread social unrest, and the break-up of the ruling coalition, as cuts to the budget would lead to a falling out with the HSS.

DAMIR POLANCEC, the Deputy Prime Minister had put backing the Prime Minister ahead of his wrangling with SukerThis is what Jadranka Kosor wants to avoid at all costs, and that is why her Government will adopt a budget that does not invest into development, but does secure the survival of the ruling coalition. The next phase includes the presidential elections and providing support to Andrija Hebrang. However much Jadranka Kosor helps him out in his bid for the presidency and possible appearance in a runoff vote, will determine how much Hebrang will later on be her ally in intra-party power struggles. Jadranka Kosor will certainly need allies, because the last phase involved a reconstruction of the cabinet. And while she recently explicitly rejected demands to dismiss some ministers, in the event that the HDZ-led administration survives the Prime Minister will have to do so. Besides, it was not long after she succeeded Sanader that she began to consult on economic issues with Zeljko Lovrincevic, Croatian National Bank Governor Zeljko Rohatinski and with his deputy Boris Vujcic. Not one of these three renowned experts is a member of the HDZ, and on some issues they advocate significantly different approaches than Ivan Suker and Damir Polancec do. In a recent interview for the Novi list daily Lovrincevic called for personnel changes in Government, and given his closeness to the Prime Minister, he would not have said so without her knowledge or if he thought it would undermine their relationship. A reconstruction of cabinet - which is absolutely necessary - will mean the definite break-up of Jadranka Kosor and Ivo Sanader. Over the past three months she has launched a quiet de-Sanaderisation, she recently demonstrated to Luka Bebic and Bianca Matkovic who the new boss was in the HDZ, and over the coming months it is to be expected that the elimination of Sanader's people will continue and the parallel instalment of people who enjoy Jadranka Kosor's confidence.