UNCERTAIN FUTURE When Jadranka Kosor succeeded Ivo Sanader at the post of Prime Minister two months ago she also inherited his team, but is looking now to make some changes, and one of the first to go could be Defence Minister Branko VukelicThere is growing pressure from the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) leadership on Jadranka Kosor to move forward with a cabinet reshuffle. What is interesting is that almost identical demands are coming from some of the smaller parties of the ruling coalition, and the Prime Minister is to hold a meeting with her closest aids by the end of the week, this according to a HDZ member and a minister in Jadranka Kosor's team. This is just the initial phase and the names of the Government officials that are to go have not been mentioned yet, as they wish to reach a political consensus first on possible changes to personnel. It has been almost two months since Jadranka Kosor succeeded Ivo Sanader, and after having succeeded in pushing through a budget rebalance, buying a few more months of social peace, the Prime Minister wants now to start stabilising her administration, and it appears that she has accepted the suggestion to, if she wants to avoid early elections, bring some new people into the cabinet.

Speaking to the Novi list daily, Damir Polancec hinted at an upcoming reshuffle, saying that Government needed a personnel boost. And while Government officials say that there has not yet been any discussion on what ministers might be on their way out, there is no doubt that there are three neural points. First of these is certainly Defence Minister Branko Vukelic, who has been embroiled in several major corruption scandals. Vukelic was the chairman of the Supervisory Board at the Brodosplit Company, where four million dollars went missing, has been linked to the suspicious privatisation of the Karlovac-based dairy producer KIM, and in April he forbade Croatian Army inspector Jozo Milicevic go public on the disgraceful lorry scandal, in which Berislav Roncevic is also embroiled. A few days ago it was revealed that Government spent millions of euro building an unnecessary bridge that passes near the Defence Minister's house. In any event, after this many allegations against him, Vukelic has lost all credibility and Jadranka Kosor must give thought to his dismissal.

Gordan Jandrokovic came to the head of the diplomacy because of his good rapport with Sanader, but has not done enough over the past two years. This pertains above all to the now almost nine-month blockade of the negotiations with the European Union, in which Jandrokovic has been exceedingly passive. It is a fact that the Slovenes are behaving in exceedingly bad form, but the foreign ministry has in no way improved Croatia's negotiating position. Because of his role in Jadranka Kosor's cabinet, Jandrokovic has a great deal of responsibility for the current situation and it is an open question as to whether he will ride out the cabinet reshuffle.

The third segment concerns the economy as an acute problem with which Government will have to deal with for some time to come. Analyses do not forecast an immanent exit from the recession, and that means that the Prime Minister has to give thought to beefing up the personnel in her cabinet. And this in no way excludes the possibility that this could be someone from outside the HDZ, a non-affiliated expert, something similar to the decision Ivica Racan made in 2002 when he brought the then relatively unknown Ljubo Jurcic into his government. By the end of the week Jadranka Kosor should hold a number of meetings at which she will discuss changes to her cabinet, but no concrete names are in the works for the moment. When she took on the post of Prime Minister she inherited Sanader's entire team, and it was clear from the start that there would have to be personnel changes, but the new rebalanced budget had to be adopted first.

That part is done, and in spite of the objectively very poor economic situation, which could worsen this autumn and lead to the fall of this Government and early elections, Jadranka Kosor can still strengthen this administration. Besides the already cited budget rebalance, there are a number of things that show that the HDZ is not, after all, beyond salvaging. Even President Stipe Mesic stated recently that he was pleasantly surprised by its work so far, which is quite a compliment if one takes into consideration their prior and frequent verbal disputes and disagreements. And Jadranka Kosor has succeeded in utilising her many years of cooperation with veterans' associations - which have backed Government's policy of cutbacks. At issue here are not just several hundred thousand persons and the members of their families, but also the psychological aspect of the public statements made by veterans' groups.

Their support of Government is not insignificant, even if it has provoked union leaders to compare it with the former SUBNOR (the former Yugoslavia's Federation of Veterans' Association of the People's War of Liberation). It may seem paradoxical, but the incomprehensible demands of union leaders, who are behaving as if there is no crisis, are working in Jadranka Kosor's favour. In this general recession the unions are rejecting wage cuts in the bloated civil service, are opposed to shutting down the shipyards, whose losses amount to several billion kuna, and are also criticising Sunday shopping, which is at least in some measure filling the national coffers. Their persistence on unrealistic demands, just like the similar demands of some farmers' associations, are objectively working in the Government's favour.

On the international scene there is a chance that there could be a partial unblocking and continuation of the negotiations with the EU this autumn. And while this topic has dropped out of the spotlight these past months, the continuation of the talks would bolster Jadranka Kosor's position. The opposition's wishy-washy stance is working in her favour, as it is wracked by infighting on completely marginal issues, such as whether to join forces at possible early elections or to appear as two blocs. Their first meeting held on 15 July in Kastav finished with the conclusion that there should be an SDP-HNS-IDS pre-election coalition, and a new agreement on this is expected in a few days at a scheduled meeting in Sibenik. But there is tense debate behind the scenes, and blackmail, as the HNS is saying that Vesna Pusic will drop out of the presidential race only if Zoran Milanovic promises that Radimir Cacic can have the spot of deputy prime minister responsible for the economy and Vesna Pusic the post of foreign minister in a future government.

Milanovic and most of the SDP leadership feel that this is too high a price, as the Social Democrats are six times stronger than the HNS. This ignores a clear fact, and that is that if things turn out how the opposition would like it to, the SDP would get the Prime Minister's seat and the Presidency, and in return would leave the HNS just a little more than they realistically deserve.BLACKMAIL IN THE BACKGROUND Vesna Pusic will get out of the presidential race if she is guaranteed the foreign ministry

This kind of opposition manoeuvring significantly increases the level of public scepticism, and was precisely described by Nenad Zakosek, a professor at the University of Zagreb's Faculty of Political Science, according to whom Croatian political parties pay no heed to a struggle for specific political content, so-called policy-seeking, and boil everything down to gaining posts, i.e. "office-seeking". If the opposition does not succeed in making significant changes to its current strategy, Jadranka Kosor could over the coming several months stabilise the position of the ruling coalition, at least up to December when the 2010 budget is to be adopted. It appears that the dominant line of thinking in Government is that there is a need to bring new experts on board to help in riding out the crisis, and Prime Minister Kosor's political survival.