A STRUGGLE FOR CREDIBILITY Jadranka Kosor has to persevere in implementing reforms and budget cuts, and if she manages to survive these unpopular measures, she could regain her cloutSome opposition politicians consider last weeks meeting between the heads of the SDP, HNS and IDS in Kastav the formal launch of a project to bring down the Croatian Government and take power at early elections. And while the meeting in Kastav was presented to the public as the start of talks on putting together an election coalition for the regularly scheduled elections for Parliament in 2011, these opposition politicians expect these three political parties to join forces as early as by this autumn with the aim of exerting strong political pressure on the ruling coalition to bring down this Government. It is no surprise then that they are already discussing a strategy with which a coalition of the left-of-centre would take the majority in Parliament and by doing so provoke early elections. Given the current situation in the country it is plausible that a coalition of this kind would defeat the ruling HDZ and its partners at the polls and take power. But, regardless of the decisiveness of the leaders of opposition parties, President Stjepan Mesic may prove the key factor in taking power because of the political influence he wields among the Members of Parliament representing the ethnic minorities, especially the Serb minority deputies. Without their support in Parliament the united opposition will be hard pressed to see their plans through.

Mesic can probably secure this support, which is why it is to be expected that the leaders of the opposition coalition will soon move to persuade the President to join their coalition. That will be very interesting, because the meeting in Kastav was in part aimed at responding to press reports to the effect that President Mesic will, when his term in office runs out, gather several parties represented in Parliament to form a political "third bloc", a new coalition on the Croatian political scene. For the bloc Mesic has, among others, foreseen the HNS and IDS and has already held preliminary talks with the leaders of these parties. If Mesic were to put together a coalition of this kind it would have very bad repercussions for the SDP, as that party would find itself isolated, without potential coalition partners, and some SDP voters could turn to Mesic. SDP president Zoran Milanovic understands this, which is precisely why he gave the initiative for the Kastav meeting, even though he was in the past the chief opponent of a pre-election opposition coalition. Milanovic has thus managed to some degree to disrupt Mesic's political plans, but it is quite certain that the newly established coalition will be hard pressed to achieve its ambitions without the President's support. For a vote of no confidence to pass in Parliament, namely, requires a majority of 77 votes. Together the SDP, HNS and IDS have 65 deputies. If independent deputy Dragutin Lesar joins their ranks the coalition will have as many votes as the HDZ.

It is clear then that the key role in establishing a majority lies with the minority deputies and that the opposition coalition has to win them over if it wants to bring down this Government. It is here precisely that President Mesic could play the key role, because the feeling is that he could, through his influence, secure the opposition the support of the SDSS's three MPs, that of Italian minority deputy Furio Radin, and perhaps that of Bosniak deputy Semso Tankovic and that of Czech minority MP Zdenka Cuhnil. Should they begin to withdraw their support from the ruling coalition, Government could face serious problems by autumn. And it is to be expected that the opposition will try to secure the support of some deputies from the ranks of the ruling coalition, above all that of independent MP Stipe Grabric Jambo, who is on the HSS slate and is on good terms with President Mesic, but on very bad terms with the HDZ. In the past Jambo has been at odds with the HSS leadership on several occasions and the opposition feels that it might persuade him to vote against this Government. Marijana Petir could be another HSS dissident, and has been in open conflict these past weeks with party leader Josip Friscic, who has openly threatened to throw her out of the party.

Based on the positions and values she advocates, Marijana Petir would not find it easy to work within a coalition of the left-of-centre, but would in the event she was expelled from the HSS probably be inclined to support bringing down the Government. If that were to happen the HSS would be reduced to four MPs in Parliament, and that would seriously threaten the stability of the ruling coalition. Then the HDZ, HSS and HSLS would together have 72 deputies in Parliament, and would not have a majority even with the support of loyal minority deputies Denes Soja, Nazif Memedi and the independent MP Zlatko Horvat. Since it is certain for now that it will not, as a result of the Glavas case, secure the support of the three HDSSB deputies, the ruling coalition, if it wants to stay in power, has to secure the support of the HSP's one deputy and that of Silvano Hrelja of the Croatian Pensioner's Party (HSU). Even if they were to pull that off, they would only have the minimum majority of 77 votes and Government would, because of procedural difficulties, be hard pressed to govern effectively. To vote through any bill proposed by Government all loyal MPs would have to be present in Parliament, something that has so far proven difficult to achieve. On the other hand, it is very questionable whether Government will even be able to do so. Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor will, namely, need a great deal of skill to see through the necessary cuts in public expenditure, accompanied by reductions in wages, pensions and subsidies, and on the other hand hold on to the support of her coalition partners. Silvano Hrelja has already said that Government cannot expect his support if it cuts pensions, and strong pressure is to be expected from the HSS when it comes to agricultural subsidies. What is more, HSS leader Josip Friscic has insisted that Government increase the VAT rate in the hope of securing enough money to pay out high agricultural subsidies.

In the end Government abandoned this initiative, but it is clear that it will have a hard time cutting expenditures over the coming months. If Jadranka Kosor wants, namely, to secure the confidence of foreign creditors and politicians, she must, using all means at her disposal, bring order to the public finances. The Prime Minister received unambiguous messages to this effect from abroad immediately after succeeding Sanader at the post. It is then evident that the coming rebalance of the national budget will be viewed as a test of the new Prime Minister's abilities. Decisive steps are expected of her, which she has announced, but they are almost certain to lead to strong resistance from some social groups in Croatia. The unions have already announced mass protests against Government's intention to cut the wages of civil servants and public workers by a further 6 percent. The representatives of veteran's associations have announced similar actions, unhappy with the announced cuts to their pensions and the scrapping of benefits such as free school textbooks. A part of those employed in the shipyards have already started preparations for a strike, unhappy with the model of privatisation of their companies, and farmers have said that they will drive their tractors to Zagreb if Government does not secure the guaranteed prices they want, even if it is already obvious that there is no money for them. Students have also announced protests to demand that tuitions be scrapped, and business people have said that Government will lose their support if it introduces any new tax burdens.

It is clear in this situation that the popularity of Government will drop significantly over the coming months, and that relations within the ruling coalition will also worsen. Nevertheless, even though it will be faced with much criticism and protest, if it perseveres in the decisive implementation of reforms and budget cuts, the Government of Jadranka Kosor will no doubt earn significant political credibility, even aboard. And that is why it can be concluded that Government, if it manages to survive unpopular cuts, could regain its clout. This is something they are aware of in the opposition and what makes their plan to bring down Government while it is forced to undertake unpopular measures interesting. What is more, this scenario is now quite realistic, but will depend above all on the ability of the opposition leaders to win over the minority Members of Parliament that have to date been loyal to this Government. If they succeed in doing so, Croatia could in the space of a few months be at the threshold of early elections.