A PUTSCH IN THE PARTY The smiles of Ivo Sanader, Andrija Hebrang and Vladimir Seks at the HDZ convention at Zagreb's Arena hide many months of dispute over the investigation into the procurement of military lorriesThe lorry scandal has cost Ivo Sanader his political career, that is to say the investigation that was being led into former Defence Minister Berislav Roncevic. This embarrassing scandal saw months of frantic struggle between the HDZ's rigid right wing, led by Andrija Hebrang, which wanted to hush up the entire matter, and the former Prime Minister who vacillated under pressure from the international diplomacy and sought a way out of a problematic situation. When Sanader finally concluded that he could not save Roncevic, because the charges against him had already been drafted, the new real rulers of Croatia, Vladimir Seks and Andrija Hebrang, forced a speedy and dishonourable exit from the political scene - for Sanader.

Sanader did in fact leave half way through last week because it had become clear that he no longer had anyone on his side: he suffered strong simultaneous attacks from colleagues in his party and from international figures who were appalled by the vehement attempts to wrap up the entire case without naming the chief culprits. Well informed Nacional sources confirmed last weekend that a powerful struggle had been ongoing these past three months concerning the fate of Berislav Roncevic: on one side were President Stjepan Mesic, who broached the scandal back in 2005, former Police General Director Vladimir Faber, under whose leadership the Croatian police investigated the case, and SDP Member of Parliament Nenad Stazic, who has fought for months on behalf of the opposition to keep the case open. On the other side were the HDZ heavies who grasped that the lorry scandal could serious harm and even bring down their brand of government, and did everything they could to obstruct an independent investigation. Caught in the middle was the now former Prime Minister Ivo Sanader, who as a result was so weakened politically that he had become entirely powerless: he could not prevent the resolution of the investigation, nor quell the turmoil within his own party.

Complications emerged in the dramatic situation at the seat of Government in the old vicegerent's palace, Banski dvori, back in April: while SDP MP Nenad Stazic insisted in Croatian Parliament on a resolution to the lorry scandal, confidential information was reaching Sanader in growing frequency that Police General Director Vladimir Faber had gotten involved in the case bypassing any HDZ control. Immediately upon his appointment to the post he ordered a detailed investigation and initiated additional expert evaluation of Roncevic's purchase of the controversial lorries. He entrusted the task to Neva Budimir, a police inspector specialised in white-collar crime who was given free rein in the investigation. That was a signal to leading people in the HDZ that the situation was becoming perilous and that Faber had to be thwarted in his intention to investigate the case. Information on Faber's intentions came from the Interior Ministry straight to Sanader's office: Roncevic's former assistant Ivo Bacic was himself under suspicion in the lorry procurement, and since he had been moved from the Defence Ministry to the post of State Secretary at the Interior Ministry, he was aware that the police had moved to get to the bottom of the scandal. He informed Roncevic to this effect, and the HDZ's rulers behind the scenes: Vladimir Seks and Andrija Hebrang.

They organised a secret meeting with Sanader at which Roncevic and Bacic explained to the Prime Minister that Faber was completely out of control and that the entire scandal could be disastrous not only to them personally, but also to the entire HDZ, i.e. for the top national leadership. Among people close to the HDZ leadership the story has been circulating for days that one of the party's younger vice-presidents allegedly told Sanader "Well Roncevic did not put the money into his own pocket. It was for the party." After hearing them out Sanader sought, by way of Minister Tomislav Karamarko, that the police scrap or hush up the case, but was unaware that the investigation had already gone too far. By late April Faber received preliminary reports from which it could be gathered that the investigation would be disastrous for Roncevic. State Secretary Ivo Bacic was the most aware of this at the time. The 14th anniversary of Operation Flash was held in Okucani on 1 May. At the event the protocol had Sanader greet many dignitaries, and when he came to Bacic, Sanader allegedly reassured and encouraged him saying that everything would be resolved and that he had things under control.

He said this out loud in front of a dozen of the top police officials, which was to have been a message to the entire police force on what position they should adopt in the lorry scandal. At the time Sanader probably himself believed in what he had said. The reality, however, was different: Vladimir Faber grasped that the situation was critical and that he must not allow the case to be hushed up, even at the cost of his own dismissal. Faber drew his decisiveness not to heed all warnings and demands to stop the investigation from the silent support of western diplomats who had for months monitored the developments. It all led to a great deal of anxiety in the HDZ, where there was a growing conviction that Faber had to be speedily removed from the post of police general director. Seks and Hebrang discussed this several times with Sanader, and these meetings were true altercations: voices raised, the two HDZ heavies ordered the former Prime Minister to dismiss Faber, which he opposed knowing how bad it would look.

When it became clear in early June that Faber's investigation was nearing its end and that he was ready in just a few days to complete the drafting of criminal charges against Roncevic, Seks and Hebrang openly told Sanader that he had to dismiss Faber. This threat came at a time when Sanader was already resigned to his own situation: over the past months he had received several informal messages from powerful European political centres that because of accumulated problems, a lack of reform and method of governing he personally was the chief obstacle to the continuation of negotiations on Croatian accession to the European Union. In some political circles in Zagreb there are claims that Sanader even received two very concrete messages in this vein. Aware that he had weakening or no support from abroad, Sanader pragmatically tried to reassure his opponents within his own party: after a few days he finally ordered Vladimir Faber be dismissed.

The dismissal was carried out awkwardly, on the quick and without clear reasons, which were, besides, compromising for the ruling party leadership. By doing so Sanader only slightly alleviated the criticism being levelled at him from the right wing of the HDZ led by Seks and Hebrang. They continued to level blows at Sanader, and one of the chief arguments was that the culprit for all of the problems with Faber was Sanader himself, because he appointed him general director of the police in October of last year without informing and getting approval from the party heavyweights. Within a few days Faber's dismissal led to severe criticism of Sanader from all quarters and in fact led to the downfall of his political career: the news of Faber's dismissal was received poorly both by the Croatian public and abroad. And since serious warnings had begun to arrive from the European Union that he had by the move brought into question any chance of Croatia's imminent accession to the EU, Sanader did an even worse thing: he ordered Minister Gordan Jandrokovic to tell foreign diplomats, US Ambassador Robert Bradtke and the head of the European delegation Vincent Degert, to "not meddle in Croatia's internal affairs."

After that message European politicians concluded that Ivo Sanader was as far as they were concerned finished. He had either decided to become an autocratic dictator or the HDZ right wing had him in its grips and was dictating his moves. In both cases the result was the same - Sanader was no longer an acceptable political actor and probably became a political dead man in the eyes of European policy makers. This entirely thwarted all of his diplomatic efforts as regards the dispute with Slovenia. That had of late gone poorly anyways, and he had not received the expected support from French President Nicolas Sarkozy, or from German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The final message came from Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, who indicated ahead of the start of the Swedish presidency of the European Union that the dispute had to be resolved by a bilateral agreement in which the EU would not get involved. And while a new general director, Oliver Grbic, who has a good rating in the HDZ, had come to the helm of the police force, it was clear to Sanader that the lorry scandal had gone too far. All additional expert evaluation had been completed by the beginning of June, and inspectors in the interior ministry loyal to Faber were wrapping up an indictment against Berislav Roncevic. Chief State Attorney Mladen Bajic was aware of it all, and allegedly told the former Prime Minister that he could only put off the criminal persecution of Roncevic for a time, but that it could no longer be stopped or hushed up.

UNDER PRESSURE Ministers Simonovic and Karamarko are not to the liking of the new masters of the HDZBesides, at the beginning of last week a rumour was circulating among well-informed political circles that criminal charges against Roncevic were to be made public on Friday, 3 July. Nacional had spoken with the State Attorneys Office a few days before, where no one was willing to confirm or deny the imminent announcement of criminal charges against Roncevic. However, from sources close to the national leadership Nacional learned Monday that the State Attorney's Office was only temporarily delaying the announcement of these criminal charges, but that there are guarantees that this will happen very soon. It should be noted that the HDZ's right wing is preparing for further dismissals in the judiciary apparatus. The news had spread that the dismissal of Chief State Attorney Mladen Bajic was in the works for September. It is evident that pressure has begun to be applied on Interior Minister Tomislav Karamarko by the breaking of a scandal concerning land owned by his father in Obrovac, which a new zoning plan has upgraded to construction land. Justice Minister Ivan Simonovic has also found himself under pressure, but has significant support from the head of the European Commission to Croatia, Vincent Degert, so that the HDZ still does not dare touch him. Because of all of this Sanader has spent the last two weeks in dramatic circumstances, losing the support of both sides with a series of moves. In the eyes of European politicians he has lost all credibility, and Seks and Hebrang have clearly let him know that he has no more support within his own party.

That is why just ten days ago Sanader gave the most serious consideration to a highly risky move - to approve the criminal persecution of Roncevic. With that, he calculated, he might win some political points among Western politicians and would at the same time send a message to the Croatian public for the presidential campaign - "I am ready to fight crime even in the ranks of my own party." Seks and Hebrang were sharply opposed to Sanader's intention. If they allowed Roncevic to wind up as the culprit, Hebrang and most of the HDZ Members of Parliament would come off as liars that had defended a criminal, and that would be a dangerous precedent after which truly nobody in the HDZ, even ministers, would be free of suspicion and possible investigations. It would broach the question of whether this kind of corruption is in fact used to finance the entire HDZ. The conflict between Sanader on one side and Seks and Hebrang on the other has come at a critical juncture in which both sides are aware that there is no more chance for a compromise - somebody has to surrender, leave and give up power. The outcome of many days of tough disputes and quarrelling came on Thursday, 25 June. By all accounts the Seks-Hebrang duo was in the end stronger and Sanader buckled under and agreed to leave government quietly. In exchange for a peaceful withdrawal a deal was struck that no one would attack the other - Sanader was promised he could leave "with the highest honours" and that the HDZ's right wing would not seek revenge or probe into his sins, especially into his estate. Sanader in turn agreed to leave peacefully, to agree to all personnel changes and say nothing publicly on why he had been forced out.