FRENCH TALKS The French and Croatian Prime Ministers met last week in Brussels "Even though there are a lot of reports in our country concerning the Irish referendum, above all because of the fear that it will have a negative impact on Croatian accession to the European Union, it is a problem that concerns all of the Union member countries and it is a very complex one. It is not, in fact, even correct to say that Ireland is the only problem. The biggest problem for the Union currently is the Czech Republic, and the remaining eight countries that have yet to ratify the Lisbon treaty. And the date on which Croatia accedes to EU membership depends on it", Nacional was told by a high-ranking source within Croatian Government. On Tuesday 1 July, at midnight, Slovenia will pass on the presidency of the European Union to France. As a result of the Irish rejection of the Lisbon treaty the thinking in most European countries is that the Union is once again in the throes of a great crisis, and there is great expectation in the forecasts being made of what the first moves by French President Nicolas Sarkozy will be.

Under the French presidency the coming months should give the outlines of the resolution of a big political problem that will have direct consequences for Croatia. In the opinion of Nacional's source the key role will be played by French President Sarkozy: "Although the Irish referendum was an unpleasant surprise to many, what is positive is that this will be the twelfth time that France has presided over the Union and that the French have long prepared for this presidency. The other positive thing is that Sarkozy wants clear results out of the French presidency: if the status of Kosovo was resolved during the presidency of a small country like Slovenia, Sarkozy wants an even greater result during his presidency – the ratification of the Lisbon treaty by all of the Union members."

And that document, key to the future of the European Union, because it defines many important issues, from the centralisation of the Union to the possibilities for further expansion, had been ratified by 18 members states prior to the Irish "no", but has to be ratified by them all if it is to enter into force. And while the Irish rejection reverberated negatively across Europe, the real problem would in fact occur only if Ireland was joined by another country. Ireland has already found itself in a similar situation in 2001 when its citizens rejected the Nice treaty. A year later, at a second referendum, the document was accepted. This time the situation is much more serious as the recent Irish "no" to the Lisbon treaty could be repeated in another country, and then the European Union would face an institutional crisis.

JANSA AND BARROSO The status of Kosovo was resolved during the Slovene presidency, and Sarkozy wants more That is why all of Europe will follow how the situation develops over the coming months and the moves undertaken by Nicolas Sarkozy, who will do everything he can to see that the other countries also ratify the treaty: Belgium, Cyprus, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Britain and the Czech Republic. The biggest problem at the moment is the Czech Republic, whose president Vaclav Klaus, a well-known Eurosceptic, called the Lisbon treaty "dead" just hours after the results of the Irish referendum were announced, and said that the ratification could not go proceed. Ratification in that country hit an obstacle back in April in the Czech senate, when a group of Eurosceptic deputies sought that their constitutional court rule on whether the Lisbon treaty violated the Czech constitution. A very un-encouraging statement was made before the European press in the meantime by Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, who said that he would not bet even 100 kruna (some thirty kuna) that the Czech answer to the Lisbon treaty would be a positive one.

In the European press the forecast is that Sweden too could block the ratification of the treaty, as Swedish politicians have not been positive in their statements concerning it. A similar problem has surfaced in Britain, where the Prime Minister Gordon Brown had almost seen the ratification through, but a Eurosceptic passed the case to the High Court. Although the Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has supported ratification, it appears that in his country too the ratification will not go smoothly, as only a day after the Irish referendum the Italian justice minister Roberto Calderolli greeted the Irish decision. In the remaining countries, Belgium, Cyprus, the Netherlands and Spain, the ratification should pass without any major snags.

NO ALTERNATIVES Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel cannot influence the outcome for Croatia All of this will hamper the French presidency of the European Union as Sarkozy's goal is clear to many: to convince the remaining members of the Union that the Lisbon treaty is also good for them and to persuade them to ratify it, including the Czech Republic. If he succeeds in doing so, Sarkozy's last mission will be to resolve the problem with Ireland, for which a repeated referendum in the spring of 2009 is most likely. Many in the EU are aware that there is very little time to achieve all these goals. For many it already tragicomic that, after France, the Union will be presided over during the first six months of next year precisely by the Eurosceptic Czech Republic, after which it will be followed on 1 July 2009 by the somewhat less Eurosceptic Sweden.

That is why it is already clear that French and European politics will be marked over the coming six months by a strong lobbying effort to see the ratification through in the remaining countries. As Nacional's source points out, France will also seek Croatia's aid in doing so: "All of the members of the European Union support Croatia's accession to the EU, especially France and Germany, even those countries who are no overly well disposed to any significant expansion. France will open all the doors to Croatia to complete the negotiations, but it will also seek of Croatia that it uses all of its connections in the countries that still have reservations about the Lisbon treaty. In other words, it is already now expected of Croatia that it successfully lobby for the ratification in cooperation with the French, and to do so in direct contact with the top officials of the countries that have not yet ratified the Lisbon treaty.

That is the context in which one should view the statements made by Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel who were resolute in advocating the ratification of the treaty during the 20 June summit, saying that without it there could be no widening of the European Union. In Croatia that was immediately interpreted as a bad sign, but what is in fact at issue is that the leading European countries wish to make it evident that there are no alternatives to the Lisbon treaty. Suggestions have been made in several European countries to Croatian Government that it starts lobbying the Czech Republic and Ireland as soon as possible, because it is only through strong pressure on these countries that the Lisbon treaty will finally come into force. There is agreement in the majority of European states that Croatia should accede to the European Union.

='PRIME MINISTER SANADER could find himself without his chief political ace: Croatian accession to the EU in 2011 Everyone needs Croatia as a positive example in the region, because it is evident that all international politicians understand that the only solution for this unsettled region is the Euro-integration of each individual country, which would create a more secure atmosphere. One should also not forget that the EU countries do not wish for the countries of South Eastern Europe to grow closer with Russia. It is true that the Union is currently dealing with its own big problem, but it is also true that its successful resolution will have direct consequences for Croatia too. All of this should convince Croatia to follow the instructions it has received from French circles: that it is dedicate intensive efforts over the coming months to continuing the negotiations with the Union, and at the same time to lobby the countries that have yet to ratify the Lisbon treaty", concludes Nacional's source.

The biggest Eurosceptics in the EUBesides by Ireland, the Lisbon treaty has yet to be ratified by Belgium, Cyprus, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Great Britain and the Czech Republic. In Brussels they are currently worried most by the Czech Republic, who is taking over the Union presidency after France, in a year's time. Czech President Vaclav Klaus is a well-known Eurosceptic. He called the Lisbon treaty "dead" after the Irish referendum and said that ratification could not continue. He was joined by Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, who said he would not bet even 100 kruna (some thirty kuna) that the Czech answer to the Lisbon treaty would be a positive one. After the Czech Republic the Union will be presided over by Sweden. Judging by the statements made by Swedish politicians problems can also be expected in that country when it come to ratification.