"Optimism is, in principle, a very good thing, but speaking honestly, I doubt that your Government will succeed in fulfilling its goal of completing the negotiations with the European Union by the summer of 2009. Backing down from the Protected Ecological & Fishing Zone is a good message, but ahead of you are numerous issues that will be tough to address, like shutting down some shipyards or a real start to the battle against corruption, and it is an open question as to whether there is a political will for the speedy resolution of these problems, since nothing has been done so far, even though we sent the first warnings concerning some back in 2004. Besides, it is an open question to what extent your national administration is able to respond to these challenges if the fight with the toughest problems such as corruption should be led by the justice minister who did not do anything even in her last mandate that would confirm a confidence in her capacities", Nacional was told these days by a high ranking diplomatic source accredited in Zagreb.

The reaction from this diplomat shows how international circles regard last weeks statements from Ivo Sanader according to which Croatia will complete the EU accession negotiations by the summer of next year. Likewise, there is now a clear indication of a lack of confidence in some officials, such as Minister Ana Lovrin, i.e. in their capability to fulfil the obligations that have been undertaken. Very similar evaluations were confirmed for Nacional by an official at the Croatian foreign affairs ministry, who feels that Sanader's administration will be hard pressed to keep the promise he made in Brussels. "A lot of things will be clearer in a few months time as was announced by the President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso, but if it intends to meet the goal, Government will have to invest a great deal more effort than it has so far.”

Nacional's sources have expressed, it could be said, complete reservation towards the statement made by Prime Minister Sanader that Croatia would become an EU member state by 2010. And in this regard they point out that there are no political reasons behind it but rather a kind of time crunch and the further developments within the Union itself. The middle of next year will see new elections for European Parliament, and about six months later we can expect the formation of a new European Commission as the current one, led by José Manuel Barroso, will see its mandate run out on 31 October 2009. For Croatia it is extremely important to complete the negotiations by then because additional complications could ensue otherwise. That includes an entirely new team that will be leading the EU and which will require some time to harmonise its own strategies and goals.

On the other hand, even if Croatia completes the negotiations in the autumn of next year – which is the most ambitious variant – it will first wait about a half year for the new position of the Commission to be defined, which is then followed by ratification in 27 national parliaments. This process cannot, even in theory, be completed in less than one year's time, and likely much longer. Croatia could accede to the EU at the earliest in mid 2011. That 2012 is a more realistic date is confirmed by competent politicians such as the former head of the diplomacy Tonino Picula and Neven Mimica, a member of the National Committee monitoring the European Union accession negotiations.

The local media, besides, and almost as a rule, were not precise in interpreting the statement Barroso made last week, after his meeting with Sanader. Barroso did not say that the negotiations with Croatia would end in 2009, but rather that the "European Commission will announce that the target end of the negotiations with Croatia is the autumn of 2009, if Croatia fulfils the necessary conditions".

What will perhaps be the most complex negotiations are expected to take place in the chapter on Competition Policy, where benchmarks came from the EU back in June of 2006 for shipbuilding, the steel industry, duty-free zones and state subsidies. There are not many optimists among the Croatian negotiators when it comes to this area, in fact they are all fearful that in a few years time there could be a shut down of most shipyards or the Sisak steelworks. This is above all a political issue as someone will have to take responsibility for shutting down thousands of jobs. The positive side is that unprofitable sectors will finally be shut down, it was announced recently, for example, that the shipyard in Split has losses of 2.5 billion kuna.

In order to accede to the European Union, where subsidies account for about 0.6 percent of the GDP, Croatia has to drastically reduce subsidies to the economy, and projects indicate that that could spell the destruction of certain sectors, shipbuilding first of all. Indicative of the nature of the problem is a recent decision by the Croatian Competition Agency that rejected plans to restructure six Croatian shipyards, deeming the plans as "not good enough". At the Agency they concluded that the proposed measures would not secure profitable operations, and that means the further delay of the opening of the Competition Policy chapter, the most complex area in the relations between Zagreb and Brussels. The EU Council of Ministers also adopted a revised accession partnership in early February that explicitly underlines the need to "reduce subsidies, restructure large loss-producing companies and increase the efficiency of public spending".

Besides, in a letter addressed to Gordan Jandroković, Olli Rehn too warned of the delays in four areas: Judiciary and Fundamental Rights, Public Procurement, Competition Policy and Fisheries. Rehn's warning will lead to numerous political implications, in the justice department, for example, numerous courts will have to be abolished this year, which will inevitably lead to stormy reactions from Croatian judges. To meet the criteria for the opening of negotiations pro bono legal aid needs to be introduced, and there are also opposing positions on that issue.

And much more painful implications for social welfare will be caused by the demands from Brussels that the zero VAT rate be abandoned for medication, milk and bread. These are basic items where a price hike would hit most of the population, and it is hard to expect understanding for the fact that, when Croatia does one day become a member of the European Union, there will be a strengthening of the domestic economy, and thereby, a bolstering of the general standard of living. It is these kinds of conditions that are a source of Euro-scepticism, and the Sanader administration, but also the opposition parties, will have to strike a consensus on the reduction of some social rights. The existing system of excise duties will be changed, while the EU is warning in particular of malversation connected to public procurement. This area is cited as a hotbed of corruption, and after the adoption of a new Public Procurement Act, Government will have to prove that it is in fact being implemented. Much more transparent spending is expected of Croatia in state financed projects. The legislative precepts are quite good, but not their implementation in practice. Jobs are contracted from time to time without public tenders, which is inadmissible, reads the objection coming out of Brussels.

Vesna Pusić, the President of the National Committee monitoring the EU accession negotiations, met with Olli Rehn in Brussels some twenty days ago. In her discussion with the European Enlargement Commissioner she was given assurances that the completion of negotiations during the coming year was a very optimistic, but realistic goal. "I think that this is in part also an European interest because the current Commission wants to be remembered by some result, and that would be the conclusion of the negotiations with Croatia", says Vesna Pusić.

A particularly difficult problem is the fact that Croatia is perceived as a very corrupt state, in which many government officials are embroiled in suspicious affairs. Despite many allegations none of them have been brought to court yet, and that means that the chain of corruption leads very high up. "Very small steps have been taken for the most part in an effort to reduce it, but zero-tolerance is what is needed. There is a feeling that there remains a certain level of selection and even tolerance towards a part of the people who are suspected of having been embroiled in corruption scandals", warns Neven Mimica.

Besides, when it comes to the justice department, there is still no rationalisation of the network that was announced two years ago, and European legal standards still need to be introduced in the education of judges, which will have to be done anyways when Croatia accedes to the EU.

And while they do not say so openly, a number of EU member states as convinced that Croatian Government is directly responsible for slowing down the negotiations. Warnings are coming at a regular pace out of Brussels that the Croatian justice department is not meeting the needed criteria and it is logical that the EU is judging this kind of behaviour as a proof of a lack of willingness to resolve the problem of corruption.

Experts from London have being sitting in the justice ministry for years now, where their suggestions in the fight against corruption are ignored. The problem also has a political dimension as the British administration tried to warm relations with Zagreb after the extradition of Ante Gotovina. Prominent in this respect were some leading British politicians, people like George Robertson, the former General Secretary of NATO, or Chris Patten, who offered lobbying services in Brussels.

An equal level of attention is drawn by war crimes trials, like the one being led in Osijek against Branimir Glavaš. Cases like these have a much greater influence on the credibility of the Government than Sanader's promises made in public on the fight against corruption or the reform of the judiciary. This is not about politics, but about elementary logic – if the national government intends to enter a coalition with the party of a man accused of liquidating civilians, who can guarantee that there would be no pressure on the court to find Glavas innocent of the charges. Ivo Sanader and his cabinet will have to face a number of these kinds of dilemmas in the coming period, and it is hard to believe that this will not slow down the negotiations with the European Union.