The past few days have certainly been the most difficult for Ivo Sanader since becoming HDZ president. The recent events surrounding Branimir Glavaš could be just the beginning of new troubles for the premier who is now fighting on three fronts: he is battling for the start of EU talks, to improve the economic and financial situation in the state and to preserve his party.

The biggest problem for Sanader is not that Glavaš has begun to speak regularly about regionalism, but the Premier has instinctively sensed that a great danger looms – his loss of power within the party and with that, his removal from the political stageWhile Sanader has been completely focused on the start of EU accession talks and winning over Carla Del Ponte, within the state and his party, many things have been happening, which Sanader has not noticed. The catastrophic economic situation, the foreign debt which continues to spiral out of control, and increasing insolvency are erosive elements which are deeply cutting away at the government’s position. The situation within HDZ is even worse: Glavaš’s move is only the tip of the iceberg which Sanader is heading straight into.

Sanader could ask himself just how in control of his party he is, when the entire operation prepared by Glavaš unfolded right under his nose without his knowing. It was only mere luck, or rather one oversight by Glavaš that allowed Sanader to react at the final moment and prevent Glavaš’s definitive victory in Slavonia. The HDZ leadership only realized on 16 April that something was happening, when they saw the web page of HDSSB (Croatian Democratic Alliance of Slavonia and Baranja) by chance. Though this was depicted as a citizen’s association, the HDZ leaders realized that this was actually the core of Glavaš’s new party and that he was planning to leave HDZ after the local elections. According to the HDZ leaders, had this web page complete with the list of the initiative committee of HDSSB not been posted on the web this early, Sanader would not have had the time to expel Glavaš from the party and compose the ballot list at the last minute. Most offended was Vladimir Šeks, a close friend of Glavaš. Glavaš had sat with Šeks only one day earlier to review the election ballot lists, without mentioning a single word about HDSSB. When this was uncovered, Sanader began a race against the clock.

Sanader began to think of how to outplay Glavaš. On the day before the ballot list deadline, he called the National party council, where Glavaš was to be retained for as long as possible before being insulted and expelled at the very end of the meeting, and that before the press and television cameras. In that way, several things would be accomplished. First, Glavaš would come out the big loser, thrown out of the party like a dog, thereby losing all his power and immediately discouraging his supporters. Second, Glavaš would not have sufficient time to draw up his own ballot list and submit it to the Election Committee for the local elections by the final deadline. However, Sanader’s brilliant plan backfired, as Sanader has a mole within his ranks who immediately told Glavaš what was being prepared. For that reason, Glavaš did not show up at the National Council meeting, and he immediately gathered together all his supporters and like-minded HDZers in Slavonia.

In the dead of night, they called a public notary who was to give legitimacy to the meeting, at which the first 60 people signed their acceptance to be on Glavaš’s ballot list. This was all done as part of a grand conspiracy, such that no one in Zagreb had any idea that their plans had failed. The following day, when Glavaš did not appear at the National Council meeting, Sanader and the party leaders rushed to Osijek where they succeeded in compiling and submitting the HDZ ballot list with those people that Glavaš had skipped over or had not trusted. And such, the first game between Glavaš and Sanader ended in a tie.

It should be noted that the biggest problem for Sanader is not that Glavaš has begun to speak regularly about regionalism, but the Premier has instinctively sensed that a great danger looms – his loss of power within the party and with that, his removal from the political stage. Everyone is well aware that Slavonia will one day become a region, which is natural considering our upcoming accession to the European Union. Were Croatia to be composed of several natural entities formed into regions, the functioning of the state would only be improved. This would not mean breaking up the country: Glavaš certainly could not transfer Slavonia into Hungary or Serbia any more than Jakovčić can hand Istria over to Italy. However, Sanader has experienced Glavaš’s move as a blow to his own political power, which he felt needed to be nipped in the bid in order to prevent others in following his move towards independence.

The greatest danger for Sanader is Andrija Hebrang, who has successfully overcome the most critical phase of his illness and whose ambitions are on the rise. Unsatisfied members of HDZ are beginning to contact him, and Hebrang is not one to turn down a conversation. According to those well acquainted with the situation within HDZ, Hebrang is preparing to return to the party leadership, and in so doing he needs to look like the great saviour. He is only waiting for Sanader’s reputation to erode even further due to the poor results in the upcoming local elections and a new postponement in the start of EU accession talks.

There are several reasons for the dissatisfaction within the party, and especially within the circle of the HDZ founders. The HDZ right-wing believes that Sanader and his wooing of the Hague Tribunal and the international community, has offended the Croatian national pride. Those around Hebrang are not against a rapid EU accession, but they are against such methods which are unacceptable for Croatia and HDZ. One of the means of applying pressure against Sanader was the physician’s strike. Those against Hebrang claim that is was he who stood behind Ivica Babić, with whom he signed, as minister, the collective agreement. Allegedly, Hebrang was waiting for Sanader to ask him to try to prevent the strike from happening, as this threatened to paralyze the entire health care system. Sanader chose a different method: he applied pressure on the court which ruled that the strike was illegal, thereby preventing the strike from happening without Hebrang’s help.

Though it would appear as though Hebrang has calmed down for the time being – of all activities, the only one he has agreed to is to be on the ballot list for Zagreb. This, however, is not the case. The greatest support for his activities have come from the HDZ founders, led by Djuro Perica and Perica Jurić. Like-thinkers within HDZ believe that, after the elections, an extraordinary HDZ Assembly needs to be called in order to prevent the further erosion of the party and power due to the rebellion of the war veterans, physicians, the lost elections, postponed EU talks despite the loss of national pride… At this Assembly, Hebrang would be elected president. This kind of a scenario might be possible were Sanader to fall into a deep hibernation. However, the Glavaš example proved that Sanader still has great will and desire to stay in power, together with his closest associates, led by Luka Bebić who has become his main associate and how advised him to immediately throw Glavaš out of the party.

Sanader has to maintain his power in the party and in the parliament. With the departure of the 3 Slavonian MPs under Glavaš, who will soon form their own parliamentary club which they are entitled to do, Sanader is left with a fragile majority of 78 votes (77 required). According to speculations, Glavaš could pull another 3 votes with him, however Sanader could compensate for that with the votes of the three independent MPs, thereby giving him a majority in the parliament. However, he could pay a very high price for those three votes, and the question is whether it is worth it, as to rely on the loyalty of MPs such as Slaven Letica is begging for trouble. One possible solution would be the formation of a coalition with HSP, however, that combination has now fallen through. The HSP leaders have assessed that at the current time, it is not worth entering into a coalition with HDZ, because they could lose a great deal of votes in the next elections. And Sanader would receive little to nothing. Namely, if the 7 HSP MPs in the parliament were to support HDZ, then SDSS and DC and their 4 MPs would fall out of the coalition. Last week, HSP made the decision that they will not form a coalition with HDZ prior to the upcoming elections and, if offered, they will not enter into the government. However, they also accepted the conclusion that they will not meddle in the Glavaš-Sanader conflict, and they will not call for the repeal of the government.

Sanader is facing some great and difficult decisions. Inasmuch, it should not be forgotten that Glavaš is not the same kind of opponent as Ivic Pašalić once was. Much can be said about Glavaš, but it cannot be said that he is a thief, is not a man of his word or that he does not live for his Slavonia. Therefore, Glavaš threats that he will take one-half of the HDZ votes in Slavonia could easily happen. And Sanader will have a difficult time against the decision that Kramarić will be mayor of Osijek, while Glavaš will be prefect of Slavonia. HDZ could lose its largest voting body, which is further argument for an extraordinary Assembly. If the parliament is not quickly organized, that could also mean that Sanader will quickly lose his position as party president. And that is what he is attempting to stop at all costs. Therefore, it should not be a surprise that Glavaš was not permitted to hold his Initiation Assembly in the offices of the Chamber of Commerce in Osijek. That order was issued by Vidošević, and those aware of the situation in HDZ know that he would never have issued such an order had he not been directly ordered to do so by his party and personal friend, Ivo Sanader. Such means are permitted in politics, and no one stops to ask whether or not they are moral. In the end, it only matters who wins.